Terms of use

What Arvamus is

Arvamus is a newspaper that asks what happens next. Each edition is a short set of dated questions, written from verified sources. You call Yes or No and say how sure you are; when a question resolves, the back page keeps your score.

No money is involved at any point. Calling is free, there is nothing to win and nothing to pay, and scores and levels have no value outside Arvamus and cannot be exchanged for anything. Arvamus is not a game of chance.

Arvamus is published by the company named in the legal notice.

Who can use it

You must be 16 or older. You can start without an account on one device; signing in with an email link or a passkey keeps your calls on every device. Keep your devices and your email secure: whoever holds them can use your account.

Calls and scores

A call is final when calls close; until then you can change it, and every change is kept. Scores follow the published method: a time-averaged Brier score, compared with the other readers of the same story, with Forecaster levels recomputed every night.

A question resolves on the date and by the source it names, and a person at the desk resolves it. A cancelled question, a story without a question and a question changed by a material correction are not scored.

The crowd's split appears only once at least 30 readers have called a story, and numbers appear only after your own call.

How the texts are made

Arvamus stories are AI-written from verified sources: a language model writes each text from the story's checked facts, and every sentence is tied to the facts it rests on and checked by an independent verifier. Every text carries a label, with a link to its provenance record. The label says who checked the text: "Read by" and a name when a person at the desk read it before publication, or "Checked by an AI editor; no person read it." when no person did.

The desk's estimate is set by a person, with written reasons. The Oracle is Arvamus's AI forecast, labelled as AI; it reads the sources on its own. Neither is advice.

Corrections

When we get something wrong, we correct it in the open on the corrections page. A material correction cancels the question and asks it again; calls on the old question are not scored. To report an error, write to the contact address in the publisher's details.

Acceptable use

Use Arvamus for yourself. Do not call with automated tools, run several accounts to move the crowd, copy the service in bulk beyond ordinary reading, get round its limits, or try to get into systems or data that are not yours. We may limit or close an account that does, and leave its calls out of the crowd and the scores.

Our texts and your calls

The texts, films, design and software of Arvamus belong to the publisher or its licensors. You may read them, share links and share cards, and quote them as the law allows. Your calls are yours; you allow us to count them in the crowd and in the scores, as the privacy notice describes.

Not advice

Arvamus is journalism. Its stories, the crowd, the desk's estimate and the Oracle are information, not financial, legal, medical or other professional advice. Decide for yourself.

Liability

We work to keep Arvamus accurate and available, but we provide it as it is and cannot promise that it is free of errors or always online. As far as the law allows, we are not liable for indirect losses or for decisions you make because of it. Nothing in these terms limits a liability the law does not allow to be limited, such as for intent or gross negligence, or your rights as a consumer.

Changes and ending

We may change these terms; the date at the top of this page changes with them, and before a change that matters takes effect we tell you in the app. You can stop using Arvamus and delete your account at any time. We may end the service, and we will tell readers in advance.

Governing law

These terms follow the law of the country where the publisher is established. Disputes go to the competent courts of that country. If you are a consumer in the European Union, you keep the protection of your own country's mandatory law and may go to its courts.

Contact

Write to the contact address in the publisher's details below.